Polymarket trading volume, users surge amid US election anticipation, Middle East tensions

Blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket reached new heights in September, reporting $533.51 million in trading volume as anticipation builds for the 2024 US presidential election and major geopolitical events unfold in the Middle East.

The platform’s September volume increased by $61.51 million compared to August as active users climbed to 90,037, a 41% rise from the previous month.

With just over a month until Election Day on Nov. 5, Polymarket’s most active market, “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” garnered $89 million in 30-day volume, based on Dune Analytics data.

As of Oct. 3, the odds for frontrunners Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were dead in the morning, with each candidate receiving 50% of user predictions. However, Trump took a slight lead later in the evening after President Joe Biden announced the US was discussing retaliating to Iran’s missile attacks on Israel.

Surging users amid new offerings

Polymarket’s growth was not limited to election-related markets. The platform experienced its highest daily volume on Sept. 11, but new daily records were set on Oct. 2 and Oct. 3, showing the sustained momentum.

Additionally, Sept. 30 marked the platform’s busiest day, with 16,702 participants trading predictions. The rise in activity pushed September’s new account registrations to a record 89,958, a key indicator of the platform’s expanding reach.

Despite a slight dip in open interest early in the month, it rebounded to a peak of $136 million, highlighting strong user engagement and confidence in predictive markets. The surge was also driven by rumors of a token launch.

Election betting took 84% of Polymarket’s market share in September, with election bettors accounting for 64% of the user base.

Beyond the US election, other popular markets included geopolitical and financial predictions, such as “Israeli Forces Enter Lebanon in September?” and “Fed Interest Rates: November 2024.”

As the US election nears, demand is expected to remain high, though analysts are closely watching to see whether interest will taper off after November. The platform’s ability to diversify its markets beyond elections, as well as its focus on user experience, could play a crucial role in maintaining momentum post-election.

Growth momentum

Polymarket’s recent growth can be traced back to increased interest in decentralized prediction markets, particularly as global events such as elections, financial policies, and geopolitical tensions have garnered heightened public attention.

Launched as a blockchain-based prediction platform, Polymarket allows users to bet on outcomes of various events using decentralized technology, offering a transparent and secure betting environment.

Polymarket’s current growth trajectory can be traced back to mid-2023, fueled by rising interest in political events — specifically, the 2024 US presidential election. As the election approached, the platform capitalized on the increased demand for political prediction markets, which has resulted in record growth this year, especially over the last few months.

By offering a clear, decentralized alternative to traditional betting platforms, it attracted new users looking for more control and transparency over their bets. The platform’s primary draw has been its ability to provide real-time data, allowing users to engage with predictions as events unfold.

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